The Pandemic Pet Boom Is Over — But the Trajectory is Pawsitive

The COVID-19 pandemic famously prompted a surge in pet adoption as people sought companionship and suddenly had more time at home to engage in the early days of pet parenthood. This surge was a combination of pulled-forward demand and net new. Naturally, as the pandemic eased, the market for pets slowed down as well, largely due to that pulled-forward demand.

This left industry watchers wondering what the future holds for pet ownership. To find out, L.E.K. Consulting analyzed trends in the pet industry and surveyed 1,600 U.S. consumers about their attitudes toward and expectations for pet ownership. In this article, we share what we learned about who pet owners are, how they’re likely to behave and what this means for the pet industry going forward.  

Pet ownership is sticky

Our consumer and market research suggest that the pet population will continue to grow, albeit not as quickly as before the pandemic. We estimate that, following a slight decline in the U.S. pet population in 2023, growth will remain stagnant in the near term. But over the next five years, we expect annual growth to stay around or under 1% per annum.  

This slow-but-positive and steady outlook is due to several factors. One is that pet owners tend to remain pet owners, providing long-term stability to the pet population. Among survey respondents, 94% of dog owners and 97% of cat owners say they expect to replace their pet upon its passing. In addition, multi-pet households are likely to become more common, with 60% of single-pet households indicating they probably or definitely will adopt at least one additional pet over the next five years (see Figure 1). 

What about those who don’t own pets? Roughly 1 in 10 say they’re highly likely to get a dog or cat over the next five years (see Figure 2).

Furthermore, the younger the cohort of respondents, the more inclined they are to say they’ll adopt a pet in the next five years (see Figure 3). This supports a projection of pet population growth as Generation Z consumers begin forming households of their own.

Future pet owners are inclined to be indulgent

Another favorable finding of our research is that future pet owners will likely spend more on their pets than current owners do. Part of this has to do with demographics. On average, future pet owners are younger, wealthier and more educated than are current pet owners (see Figure 4). Experience tells us that these attributes correlate with higher spend per pet.

Attitudes play a role as well. Compared with current pet owners, future owners are more inclined to humanize their pets (see Figure 5). For example, they’re more likely to say that they’ll do whatever it takes for veterinary care, and they celebrate a pet’s birthday, view a pet as their child and feel bad when leaving their pet. 

Future pet owners are also more likely to indicate a willingness to make major life changes for, travel with and dine with a pet. This suggests a continuation of the positive tailwinds in per-pet spending we’ve seen in recent years, as new pet owners delight in pampering their four-legged friends. These findings might help combat a growing concern among industry participants that the runway for continued humanization of pets (and relatedly, premiumization of products) is near its end.

A pawsitive future for the industry

The pandemic-era pet population boom may be over, but pet ownership (and growth in the total number of pets in the U.S.) remains on a positive trajectory. Both the number of pets and expected spend per pet should buoy the industry as it settles into a more normal and stable period of growth over the coming years.

Please contact us and the authors to continue the conversation and learn how we can help.

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